Was going to post this in the April 2019 Q2 thread, but applies more to the overall ncept.
I actually might...I'll send an email to a few people in the ALA-100/200/300 divisions and see if they can break it down.
We had 1 go on the NOV NCEPT but that’s all. We had a trainee was last month so our projected tanked. We had 3 retire back to back to back last year but now we’re all young. Haha
Do you know where to steer me to figure it that finance/ala number?
I sent an email to each of the ALA division managers because I didn't know who would be best able to answer my questions. I asked them what criteria they used to calculate that column and what that formula is to arrive at that "losses" number, as well as how often it should be recalculated and updated.
I then got an email back from the manager of the team that does that column. They take into account retirement eligibility, but because actual verification requires review of personnel files that number is just an estimate of when they're first thought to be eligible. Then historical trends are used to project for the year. Then they also estimate other controller losses as well...removals/death/transfers/etc, using rate-based formulas.
I think he tried to be helpful, but didn't actually give me what I was looking for..."what is the formula to calculate this number?" So I replied to it asking if he'd be able to go more in depth and I'm interested purely from a numbers standpoint. No reply, but:
I got a phone call today from one of the NCEPT people. He went over the PPT column-by-column with me. National Training Data (2010-2015) is used for those facilities that have more than 10 data points to average. They won't incorporate the 2016 training data until there's less than 10% of those people that entered training in 2016 still in training...currently at 15-16%. The "retirements/losses" column he said was a number that came from Finance. Basically "take the estimates, multiply by 3, and divide by the training time." (I think...something like that at least.)
Didn't give me exactly what I wanted either, because it amounted to "this is the number Finance gives us." Instead of having it update each month, they'll be going (tentatively) to have the losses number be the same for the entire year, and then update with their yearly reports.
Talked to him for a little bit and I mentioned how it would have been better if there was any kind of heads-up that this last ncept panel was going to change their Round 2 selections and not staff to target. They're looking at future panels to change some things because they're concerned with the CPC average continuing to drop. DEV-3 vs AG and things of that nature to determine if training programs will be affected, and overloading facilities.