I can't figure out how to respond neatly and individually to each point as I'm on my phone/impatient/dumb. Anyway I left a key word out of one point I was trying to make and that was it would be "a little like us trying to sanction CHINA" when they make all the shit we need/buy. And yes, I didn't forgot to consider their oil exports into my figure for how they got to the point of running surpluses every year.
The thing is that I don't think it makes too much difference. I think even if they invade Ukraine, China is secretly in support of it because want to do something similar with Taiwan. I think it would be logical for Russia and China to buddy up and trade and support each other economically if Russia got cut out of dealings with the west. At the end of the day, money talks and bullshit walks and Russia has energy that would make sense for China to buy. Who gives a fuck about the usd? It's in a decline and has only maintained world reserve status as it has been used to settle oil transactions. But the US has abused its privilege as the reserve currency issuer for far too long and I'm sure there's nothing China would love more than to really get the shift started towards broad adoption of the digital yuan/petroyuan. Russia and China have been strategically positioning for the downfall of the west for generations and the chickens have all but come home to roost. The western economies are by and large houses of cards built on artificially low interest rates and central planning. At risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, I think the great reset foundation is playing out right before our very eyes here.
As far as Putin, I think he'll probably end up invading and the west ain't gonna do shit about it. Ukraine isn't worth nuclear war. I'm largely a noninterventionist. I don't give a fuck what they do on that side of the world so long as they don't pose a threat to the U.S. We've been the world police for far to long and the war mongers in Washington are dying for some conflict to take away the attention and provide a scapegoat for the economic implosion on the horizon at home.
I think the best play for Biden would be what Tulsi Gabbard suggested. Just guarantee to Russia that Ukraine won't become a part of nato in exchange for no invasion.
Admittedly though, I'm not 100% fluent in eastern European geo politics so maybe I'm just an idiot.
Shale is very expensive to produce and needed oil above $70 ish to be profitable before inflation really got going. Now I'd guess breakeven crude would be about $80-85 but that's just pure speculation. The thing is, it made a lot of sense to so it when oil was $150 a barrel. So much sense that a lot of companies started exploring/drilling/fracking for the oil. The problem is they took on an absolute fuck ton of debt to do it because it's a very expensive industry to break in to. When the oil prices came crashing down as supply came online, many of those companies went belly up and a lot of the lenders got fucked. Long story short, they'd have to be idiots who love terrible risk/reward ratios on their money to race to start up the shale industry again. Not to mention Biden and the green new dealers would never allow it.
It's not at all like us sanctioning China. Russia has a smaller gdp than some US states. Italy is like 3 percent of the landmass in Russia, and outranks them in GDP. Thier population is on the decline, the ruble is trash, and they make up a grand total of like 5 percent of goods imported to the west minus gas products.
China is none of those things, and probably our biggest trading partner. They can hurt us back with sanctions, Russia can't.
I don't disagree china is watching this with a close eye in regards to the taiwan of it all, and *for now* is being somewhat warm towards Russia. They actually have their own border disputes that are long running, and truth be told this is win win for China. They'll get oil at a cut rate because they'll have a captive market with Russia, who won't have anyone else to sell to (this won't help Russias bottom line mind you). It's less a marriage and more a friends with benefits arrangement for China at the end of the day.
You'll get no arguments from me on China becoming the global power inside 100 years, probably less, and the west being on the decline, though im sure we differ on how to fix that besides the vague point of less reliance on cheap Chinese goods.
I too am non interventionist, which is why I can (for now) get behind how the western powers are handling this. We aren't going in guns blazing. You are right, as much as I feel for the plight of the Ukrainians, it's not worth the potential for nukes flying, but it's not world policing if all the western democracies are joining together on a united front. This ain't Iraq.
I like some of what tulsi says, however I don't see how she or anyone else thinks it's the US, or any other NATO country's interest to allow the prime adversary of NATO to dictate who we allow into our purely defensive alliance, and it's not Russia's choice to dictate a region in another countrys independence. That whole stance is garbage. Also, check the news, they already invaded my dude. Again, the strong man tactic painted Putin into a corner where he HAD to invade. He made the bed for Russia here, If the US and EU choose to tuck them in good and tight, maybe it's time for a change in management in Moscow, which is the point of Sanctions.
On top of all this..... They do pose a threat to the US and our allies. No, not one currently worth an active fight, but one certainly worth working to contain.
Noninterventionalism is not the same as letting someone run roughshod until we need to intervene militarily. That's what we are trying to prevent here. Appeasement doesn't work, reference the Sudetenland.
It's kind of a tough sell for me that the conservative freedom and democracy crowd is all about stanning the authoritarian dictators of the world while the trample Democratic ideals these days. Just mind boggling.
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