Retirement TSP strategy

C

CaptainObvious

Legendary Member
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With the drops in the market seeming to head towards a correction, what is everyone doing with their TSP?

Drop into the G fund? Riding it out in an L or whatever fund you’re using?
 
I’m in 50% C, 30% S, 20% I and plan on staying that way. Only reason I’d be pulling out or hedging now is if I was retiring within the next 5 years.
 
Everyone's situation and goals are so different. You really need to assess your risk tolerance with a professional financial advisor to find a plan that's right for you. I doubt anyone here is here is really qualified to provide real financial advice.

That said I keep mine mostly in C and S and a some in I. (Like 60/20/20 or 80/10/10 or something close. I've lost a lot of money in the last 60 days. I don't often panic and move to G but I did the other day. Gonna hide out in there for a few. This doesn't seem like a correction at this point, but something worse.
 
Remember, your TSP is shares. You don’t lose those shares, it’s their value that drops. Unless we enter another Great Depression, even if it’s a recession like 2008, those shares will more than likely be at or above their present value within a few years if not much sooner. While their value is low is the best time to be contributing into the non-G funds because you are buying more shares for the same amount of money. That means you’ll own more shares so you’ll have more money when their value increases.
 
DL0509 said:
Can anyone recommend a good beginners resource for understanding TSP and the different funds.
Click to expand...

All the stuff is clearly explained on TSP website, if your are new generally the best strategy would be to put almost everything in the L2050 fund and leave it. That is a combo of the other funds targeting the best long term gain. People who move it around all the time have to guess right twice to make it work, this is a lot harder then it sounds.

But......I never do this and it goes against what I just said but with the Dems taking over the house though and Maxine Waters having a big role in finance I actually would consider putting maybe 35% in the G fund for the next year or so, then going back to ultra aggressive when things stabilize again. Remember, if you invest in the L40 or L50 there is a little of the G fund built in there too so it’s not like your completely ignoring it.

Finally never move most of your money into G, even if you are 55 and about to retire. That’s a old private sector strategy where they assume you retire at 65-67 and die by 80. Here we retire at 55 and die at hopefully 85. You need that money to last a lot longer. So keep it aggressive even then or you are locking yourself into 2% gains the rest of your life where over 30 years the aggressive accounts often average 6-8% gains a year.
 
My average rate of return in the TSP since 2002 is about 10.6% and almost ten years of that I had no idea was I was doing and was in the G fund or a Lifecycle fund. If I knew more I could have pushed that up to an average of 12%. Working C and S (sometimes I) I've been doing much better. I've had some big losses but also huge gains at times. 12% isn't really that unrealistic over 25 years if one isn't too risk averse.
 
^ 12% over 25 years not realistic, that’s has never been done before, the only reason why you are seeing numbers close to that for yourself is because you started at the perfect time 10 years ago and this is the longest bull market ever.

Maybe if Trump is reelected and then his son serves 8 years after he is out in 2024 the bull market will continue for 10 more years, but even with that 12% a year is really high.
 
Started TSP in late 2002. From '03-'07 there were a some really good annual returns returns in the C, S, and I but was not in those individual funds at the time. I think I my overall rate of return from '02-'18 would have been higher if I knew more or had proper advising at that time. I wish I had the kind of money I have now in the 2003 S fund. Your mileage may vary, mine did.
 
I subscribe to a TSP advise website. Ive only done it for the past couple years and so far it has not been very successful. I attribute some of that to the market tanking toward the end of last year and ever since then the recommendation has kept us in the G fund while the market has slowly gone up. Does anyone have a service that they have used for a long period of time that they would recommend?
 
I know a guy who knows a guy who subscribes to TSP Tips, and the guy said he got a return of 25% in 2018. Heh I know a guy who knows a guy.

YTD returns for all TSP funds in 2018 were terrible. If that service had him move his money almost perfectly into the best performing fund every month then it could have worked but that's like picking a perfect NCAA bracket or something. If he did each month like 100%: C, G, S, I, S, S, C, S, I, G, C, F as those were the best funds each month, he'd have gotten like 30% and no losses. I guess it's "possible" but unlikely some app/service will predict that accurately.

Have you ever worked with a paid financial advisor who helps people with investing for a living?
 
There is free financial advice through NATCA benefits. +1 (949) 202-9422 the guy’s name is Andy. He specializes in TSP.
 
Check out tspcalc.com ... It has historical prices for the c s I f g funds all the way back to 2004, and has seasonal moving strategies. Pretty cutting edge stuff.
 
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