Price is Right style?
11% quit the union. Maybe optimistic, but that’s this year’s churn.
You still have people in training who probably will want to but hang on. Additionally, you have some people who will stay in because they believe it plays a role in transferring, and then they will stay in while they train.
Then you will continue to lose 1% a year for the next couple of years, only bolstering losses by signing up new people. Maybe a little higher the year after next (2-3%) if people propose worthwhile constitutional amendments and witness them get shot down, maintaining the status quo.
The other wild card: PAC loss for the coming cycle. A lot of people who won’t leave will voice their displeasure this way. I’d wager a 20% loss to the PAC.
It will then be interesting to see the union’s financials if it does happen. I’d predict some committees meet less in person, as they will probably be cut first. You probably won’t see cuts to any RVP’s budget, that’s for sure.
Of course, they could always offset it by selling all that awesome merch we hear about in the NATCA store.
