There’s several WSJ articles, behind a paywall of course, that explain the various ways you can calculate inflation. Some models are a bit more complex, others are more practical , but they are all valid ways to define inflation. Unfortunately, the one true number is basically impossible to define, because there are different models and different definitions of what inflation is, depending on your frame of reference.
It’s like trying to answer “how many people died in world war 2?” On its face it’s a simple question, I just want a number. But when you dig in, it becomes clear that the answer is far from clear. Do you base it on service members only? How about partisans? What about people who died from enemy actions vs their own government? How about civilians? How about people who died from direct action vs indirect action? That’s just a few of the many ways you can make an accounting. The total is murky because there always will be variables some people will argue to include and others will argue they should not be included. These are all factors you can make good arguments for and against, so you don’t have so much a single number but you end up with more of a probable range.
The model the government uses for the official number is always on the conservative end, but it doesn’t mean other models don’t have usefulness. That’s a better way to think of it. It’s not that modeling complex, near infinitely multi variable processes and interactions will ever be perfect, it’s not possible by definition, but we can assess economic models as useful or not useful.
Last edited:
