Much love and respect to you and you have significantly more experience in Russia, in Russian culture, etc than likely anyone here
Yes Russian history is one of being invaded, going all the way back to the Vikings, Genghis Khan and the Turkomen/Mongols, and the Goths. Probably before all that too but those are some noteworthy ones that go even further beyond the past 300 years you listed, so in my understanding there's deep -rooted wounds and paranoia to the Russian psyche stemming from all that, and hence the anger at perceived encirclement and the desire for buffer states.
Yep that's all accurate. Was more or less saying the last 300 years because it's topical to current events I don't think anyone is worried about Mongolia at this point haha. I'd also agree it's mostly paranoia, and it's absolutely being stoked by leadership and the state controlled media there.
However, post WWII Soviet/Communist expansion and behavior globally, plus the buffer state experience Eastern Europe received for nearly 50 years has driven them (and others) into the arms of Western Europe and NATO. That common treaty of 'you attack one of us, you're attacking all of us' is mighty alluring to anyone wanting to keep the Russians contained out of their country. These attitudes didn't come out of nowhere, it stems from Russian behavior and belligerence and attitude.
Oh no arguments from me. Im not saying they are innocent in this.....far from it. However knowing what we know about the history, paranoia, justifications the Russian gov will use to justify this to their people..... Sending more to troops, to more countries and talk of adding more "buffer zone" states to NATO isn't helping one bit in deescalating.
Now the domino theory hasn't worked out too well for the world historically, however...after watching what happened in Georgia/Abkhazia/Ossetia, then Crimea and eastern Ukraine, now all of Ukraine proper
I don't think this will happen. This will be a limited incursion to consolidate what they have in Crimea with the contested regions to the east, and secure the much needed water supply that's been shit off running down to Crimea.
In fact the Georgia/ s Ossetia situation is probably a great example of how this is gonna go. There will be some limited fighting and a new fence.
...it isn't beyond the pale to worry for Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia, or whatever Russia might annex again to 'ensure stability for Russian citizens in the Kaliningrad enclave' or whatever excuses Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev come up with.
Honestly I think that is a little beyond the pale as they are actually NATO allies, and I think that decision to make them so, along with the talk of adding georgia back in the day has a big part in where we are today with Ukraine, outside of the Crimea situation, which is more a national pride thing than a NATO thing.
Desire for a legally-binding guarantee that Ukraine will never ever ever, even if there's a fire, be allowed to join NATO? A nation Russia has been openly threatening and interfering with for, what, 10 years now? At least.
Would agree wholeheartedly letting any foreign nation dictate who you Ally with is a nonstarter.
Also keep in mind a some of those 'Stans you mentioned aren't all that wild on the Russians too.
I admittedly no relatively little about most of the stans, though if the Kazakhs last month are any indication the ties are still there.
While a good bit of it was likely money
Lol yup
from us and a lot of it, there was a reason several of them enjoyed having US bases/presence in them for those 20 years. Hell in Kyrgyzstan we had a base (Manas) on the opposite side of Bishkek from a Russian airbase, they had us both there.
I did not know that. That's wild.
Or am I completely wrong and full of shit? Totally possible.
I think that was all pretty spot on, and my intent was not to stan the baddies. The Russian gov is no friend of US interests, that's a given. I'm just making the viewpoint clear to
32andBelow who was like "how could they do this, how could Putin think this way?", As having that outside viewpoint as to why it's a bad idea and what we are doing is seen as escalation to them.
Fact of the matter is Russia is on a steep decline, population/birthrate is dropping, thier economy is lagging (GDP lower than Italy), and they got absolutely wrecked by COVID, and Putin needs a strong man win. Beating up on their historic red head stepchild of Ukraine is an easy way to do it.
I'm personally of the opinion once the oligarchs (and to a lesser extent the Russian people) there see gobbling up Ukraine isn't going to help thier woes, the problem will solve itself in time, and Ukraine doesn't necessarily do anything for us as stated previously, so why not just let it play out and not risk a major escalation?