Training hold

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Maintainvfr said:
If there was traffic, it would be worth the risk to bring people back. But there's not and it isn't.

If there was low traffic and zero risk, they might as well bring people back. But whether or not we degree in the level of it, there is some risk.

People keep looking for some hard guideline or something but EITHER risk or traffic swinging hard a positive direction, or both moving a little bit, will bring people back. We're just not there yet.
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FWIW the passenger number have very slowly started to go up.

Travel Numbers | Transportation Security Administration

www.tsa.gov www.tsa.gov

I have a feeling however, that as these numbers continue to rise, airlines will do their best to compact passengers onto as few a flights as possible. For example, if 100 people a day need to get from ATL to STL on Delta, is delta going to operate the normal 10 flights a day with 10 passengers? or 2 flights a day with 50.
 
Maintainvfr said:
If there was traffic, it would be worth the risk to bring people back. But there's not and it isn't.

If there was low traffic and zero risk, they might as well bring people back. But whether or not we degree in the level of it, there is some risk.

People keep looking for some hard guideline or something but EITHER risk or traffic swinging hard a positive direction, or both moving a little bit, will bring people back. We're just not there yet.
Click to expand...
The phases don’t even have to have dates. They could just like share what they are and what the metrics they are looking for are

ATOH said:
FWIW the passenger number have very slowly started to go up.

Travel Numbers | Transportation Security Administration

www.tsa.gov www.tsa.gov

I have a feeling however, that as these numbers continue to rise, airlines will do their best to compact passengers onto as few a flights as possible. For example, if 100 people a day need to get from ATL to STL on Delta, is delta going to operate the normal 10 flights a day with 10 passengers? or 2 flights a day with 50.
Click to expand...
No airlines are going to bring back flights as fast as they can fill them. scheduled cuts in July are way lower currently.

Maybe it would be cool to know out some sims while the traffic is down. Or maybe we can wait till it’s up and then go in the sims. *efficiency*
 
ATOH said:
FWIW the passenger number have very slowly started to go up.

Travel Numbers | Transportation Security Administration

www.tsa.gov www.tsa.gov

I have a feeling however, that as these numbers continue to rise, airlines will do their best to compact passengers onto as few a flights as possible. For example, if 100 people a day need to get from ATL to STL on Delta, is delta going to operate the normal 10 flights a day with 10 passengers? or 2 flights a day with 50.
Click to expand...

Large percentage increases on small numbers still result in small numbers though. Percent is a meaningless metric, actual whole numbers are what matters. Compare to March 1 numbers and it’s a sad state of affairs. Delta people I know are saying there’s seems to be more people on flights, but not enough to add more. DL is capping flights at 60% capacity for social distancing
 
ATOH said:
I have a feeling however, that as these numbers continue to rise, airlines will do their best to compact passengers onto as few a flights as possible. For example, if 100 people a day need to get from ATL to STL on Delta, is delta going to operate the normal 10 flights a day with 10 passengers? or 2 flights a day with 50.
Click to expand...


youre thinking too logically! Scams like Essential Air Service mean its sometimes profitable to run empty and be subsidized by the DOT anyway. lol but I think you're probably right on the big boys going to big boy places. (like Kalamazaoo apurrrently) :lol:


CAP.jpg


Does anyone have the more Junior controllers in your building starting to get nervous bout the relative rise of traffic? Like weekend warriors out for approaches now that the weather is improving? Im starting to hear some rumblings. If ur scared say u skurrred!
 
Bandit117 said:
Large percentage increases on small numbers still result in small numbers though. Percent is a meaningless metric, actual whole numbers are what matters. Compare to March 1 numbers and it’s a sad state of affairs. Delta people I know are saying there’s seems to be more people on flights, but not enough to add more. DL is capping flights at 60% capacity for social distancing
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Like obviously we have to go through all the levels of traffic bur again it’s more this week than last week. It’s coming back.
 
Maybe you should just be grateful that no one is talking about a national RIF at this point but that's just like my personal opinion, man.
[/QUOTE]

My union rep mentioned this last week. They were told by a higher up to expect RIFs and furloughs in the next fiscal year.
MT
 
Bama said:
Maybe you should just be grateful that no one is talking about a national RIF at this point but that's just like my personal opinion, man.
Click to expand...

My union rep mentioned this last week. They were told by a higher up to expect RIFs and furloughs in the next fiscal year.
MT
[/QUOTE]

I would imagine any RIF would start with offering early retirements to those at the top, followed by new hires with no certs. I mentioned this at my facility and our rep seemed convinced it wasn’t in the conversation but who knows for sure.
 
Bama said:
Maybe you should just be grateful that no one is talking about a national RIF at this point but that's just like my personal opinion, man.
Click to expand...

My union rep mentioned this last week. They were told by a higher up to expect RIFs and furloughs in the next fiscal year.
MT
[/QUOTE]
Ya the faa is onboarding new hires for basics online via zoom. So there’s no way the faa is currently planning on doing anything from the bottom. Well maybe they are but I don’t even think the faa would do something as dumb as this. If they current had plans that is.
 
I was a little worried about the possibility of a furlough, then I thought about it a little bit and realized how absurd that would be. RIF by way of offering early-outs for those near retirement age? Yeah sure. Shutting down the Academy for a while? Sure, that's the go-to for the FAA. Furloughing trainees at facilities? No way. Traffic is gonna come back eventually...it might take 5 years, but as bad as staffing was before COVID, they're can't be that dumb to get caught with their pants down by laying off 2,000 controllers so that when they get that 120% SWAP traffic night they realize staffing is suddenly at 40% and it's gonna take months to rehire those people. Lots of paperwork involved with all that.

Now if the Slate Book lapses and we negotiate the Baphomet Book with Trump administration First Blood: Part 2......RIP. Outsource ATC to the same contractor that did the B737MAX coding.
 
Phillyman2633 said:
I was a little worried about the possibility of a furlough, then I thought about it a little bit and realized how absurd that would be. RIF by way of offering early-outs for those near retirement age? Yeah sure. Shutting down the Academy for a while? Sure, that's the go-to for the FAA. Furloughing trainees at facilities? No way. Traffic is gonna come back eventually...it might take 5 years, but as bad as staffing was before COVID, they're can't be that dumb to get caught with their pants down by laying off 2,000 controllers so that when they get that 120% SWAP traffic night they realize staffing is suddenly at 40% and it's gonna take months to rehire those people. Lots of paperwork involved with all that.

Now if the Slate Book lapses and we negotiate the Baphomet Book with Trump administration First Blood: Part 2......RIP. Outsource ATC to the same contractor that did the B737MAX coding.
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Also can you imagine laying off any federal
Employees right before an election?? Like weeks before.
Plus since the faa isn’t fully staffed they could just stop hiring and do a 10% workforce reduction instantly.
 
Nobody is going to be laid off. Washington is pulling trillions of dollars out of thin air every week trying to keep businesses (including the air carriers) alive. They’re not going to start sending out pink slips to people they’ve already spent millions of dollars to hire/train so far, and that they’re going to need when traffic does start going back up. And like the above post mentioned, it’s definitely not happening the month before an election. They’ll find the money.
 
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Foogy said:
You guys have a very cheery outlook in regard to government intelligence...
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The faa isn’t a for profit business. Either the budget is funded or it’s not. If they start talking about not funding it I’d be more worried.
 
That's common knowledge, just pointing out you guys expect a lot more from the partisan bickering peanut gallery than what will possibly be delivered. It's like expecting NATCA to care about all members equally, yet qhen they don't being cranky about it.
 
32andBelow said:
Like obviously we have to go through all the levels of traffic bur again it’s more this week than last week. It’s coming back.
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BAAB7484-42FF-4D3D-9BF4-F0E245B0DF3D.jpeg

It’s not really coming back in a meaningful way though. Ga pilots are getting bolder with reduced traffic at major places and with summer weather upon us, but for now the airlines are able to pretty much hold the line. If I was going to guess, I’d say at least through July. Let’s also keep in mind that the bulk of international flights are still greatly curtailed, due to border restrictions. If you’re not an EU resident or someone with very special permission like a doctor or scientist, you’re not getting in.

TSA volume can go up 75% and with 10k pax that becomes 17500 - an impressive percentage gain but still a pitifully low number of pax. A reverse in trend doesn’t mean we are out of the woods.
 
Bandit117 said:
View attachment 3753

It’s not really coming back in a meaningful way though. Ga pilots are getting bolder with reduced traffic at major places and with summer weather upon us, but for now the airlines are able to pretty much hold the line. If I was going to guess, I’d say at least through July. Let’s also keep in mind that the bulk of international flights are still greatly curtailed, due to border restrictions. If you’re not an EU resident or someone with very special permission like a doctor or scientist, you’re not getting in.
Click to expand...
The may and June schedules are pretty much done. July is what will be Interesting. American is starting to reactivate some RJs for summe
 
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