In my humble opinion, you're almost correct. Yes, more towers will be contracted-out... but after - and as part of - the FAA 804s up-downs. Sadly, all with NATCA's blessing.I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if FAAs solution to the staffing crisis is to contract out more towers, and move those CPC’s to other facilities. Reduce the number of FAA facilities, you immediately increase your staffing. That would be a pretty fun transition.
The number of new facilities coming in the SE US is crazy. Some have been built larger than needed like, for example, GSO. GSO will have an 8-position TRACON for a 4-position facility. CHS was built to gain MYR/FLO approaches under 804. RSW was built to gain SJU approach under 804.
GSP and AVL have each been funded for a new facility but they share airspace so would they overbuild to 804 into these two? Not sure who goes to GSP because CAE is ZJX and GSP is ZTL... but would they 804 AGS to GSP? Perhaps TRI into AVL would be doable.
Anyways... the large majority of Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding $5b (average $1b/yr for 5 years) is back-loaded. We'll know how much we're being sold-out when the big money starts flowing.