To help combat the stress of waiting to hear the results of my son's application, I was running some numbers to see where the FOL process is. I think the sample size is now large enough to begin to draw some conclusions. Here's what I've been able to gather from the public posts:
Number of FOL's | 59 | Based on a hand review of the 18-allsrce thread (folks posting they have an FOL) |
Estimated # of TOL's | 504 | https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/pub...ng/media/2018-ABA-200-CWP_2019_Report_508.pdf
This is from page 47, and is 240 pool 1 plus 264 pool 2 (assumed pool 2 is pool 1 size + 10%) |
Percentage | 11.7% | Number of TOL's that have converted to FOL's |
| | |
Participation Rate | 0.25 | The assumed rate of forum poster's vs non-poster's (25%) |
Scaled number of FOL's | 236 | Actual total number of FOL's that have been sent based on above ASSUMPTION (not a fact) |
Scaled percentage | 46.8% | If the assumption above is true, FOL's are less than half done |
I really hope this helps lower the stress level a bit. Since the first FOL's went out at the beginning of April, it's been two months. At this pace, there's a reasonable expectation this would continue for another two months before tapering off to deal with the "outlier" long lead items, such as complex clearance issues and/or medical reviews.