NCEPT rumor

ATC_av8er

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Heard a rumor last night that they will be allowing facilities to drop just below the national average in order to allow more people to be released. Anyone heard anything substatiating this?
 
* Found this on NATCA site*
In addition to the quarterly selections, the NCEPT group addressed some outstanding items and finally reached agreement to make changes that are designed to improve the fluidity of releases and improve the upward mobility through the system. The major changes are described below:


1. Cat 1 and Cat 2 exempt — Under the previous NCEPT SOP (standard operating procedures), no releases were allowed if the loss of a person would drop the facility’s current or projected Certified Professional Controller (CPC)/target ratio below the national average. This resulted in what were termed “Cat 1 or Cat 2 exempt” facilities — where the percentages were above the thresholds defined in the ERR MOU (memorandum of understanding), but no movement could actually occur. The Parties have agreed to allow movement of personnel where a facility could dip slightly below that floor. While initially the NCEPT was focused on those facilities where the CPC target was at or below 15, after further discussions it was agreed that the upcoming changes will apply to all facilities.

Functionally, the number of personnel that might be released by a facility will be gleaned from Column Y of the PPT (priority placement tool). A negative number in that column indicates that a facility may be able to release someone (or several people, based on rounding up to the nearest integer), although any release would still be predicated on the facility being above the national averages for both current and projected CPC/target ratios. For instance, if facility ABC was showing -.3 in Column Y, it may be able to release one person. If facility XYZ was showing -3.8, it may be able to release up to four. The number of releases would be restricted so that a facility would drop only slightly below the national averages. This should result in more movement in the system, and mitigate the number of facilities where there are too many controllers on-board to receive new personnel, but too short to release anyone.



2. Staffing level 9 and below facilities up to 100 percent projected — The NCEPT decided to adopt the process where the panel will consider additional movements between “green” facilities at the conclusion of the NCEPT round so as to try to staff level 9 and below facilities up to 100% projected CPC/target. This has been applied to level 7 and below facilities in previous panels, and expanded to include level 9 and below facilities on a trial basis. Beginning in June, this will be adopted as a standard part of the process. Ideally, this change will help get more personnel into the mid-level facilities and thus promote additional upward mobility.
 
Which means if you're at the national average, and show -4 you'll only be able to release 1

That's not true. If you're just above the national average and your Y number is -4, you can have up to 4 people selected on the panel. You need to keep in mind that if 4 people were picked up and you were just above the national average, all 4 would have category 2 release dates and could be stuck at said facility for up to a year. A lot can happen in a year, including trainees checking out which mitigates the future loss of anybody selected by the NCEPT. That's the idea behind this new change. And if your facility's Y number is -4, chances are your staffing is already pretty good and/or you have a lot of trainees expected to check out.
 
That's not true. If you're just above the national average and your Y number is -4, you can have up to 4 people selected on the panel. You need to keep in mind that if 4 people were picked up and you were just above the national average, all 4 would have category 2 release dates and could be stuck at said facility for up to a year. A lot can happen in a year, including trainees checking out which mitigates the future loss of anybody selected by the NCEPT. That's the idea behind this new change. And if your facility's Y number is -4, chances are your staffing is already pretty good and/or you have a lot of trainees expected to check out.
Just going off the "slightly" part. Let's say your number is 22. National average is 82.xx which means you need 19/22 to be at or above the national average. Do you think they are going to allow to release 4 and be at 15/22 and 68% staffing? Speculation, but a more likely outcome is release one, making the numbers 18/22 or 81.8%. Which is "slightly" below the national average

The number of releases would be restricted so that a facility would drop only slightly below the national averages
 
Let's say your number is 22. National average is 82.xx which means you need 19/22 to be at or above the national average. Do you think they are going to allow to release 4 and be at 15/22 and 68% staffing?

Yes, that is exactly what they are allowing. Using your example staffing, even if 4 people got picked up it's not like they would be released overnight and drop the staffing down to 15/22. They would be year long release dates and the FAA, using their formulas, believe there are enough trainees at that facility to replace the projected losses before the staffing level becomes worse than what it currently is.

The "slightly below the national average" line you're talking about refers to rounding the Y number up to the nearest integer. If your Y number (additonal inbounds needed to meet the national average) is -3.7 that means you're projected to be 3.7 people above the national average. So if you release 4 bodies, you'll eventually be 0.3 people below the national average. In other words, slightly below the national average. It's all about projections.
 
Yes, that is exactly what they are allowing. Using your example staffing, even if 4 people got picked up it's not like they would be released overnight and drop the staffing down to 15/22. They would be year long release dates and the FAA, using their formulas, believe there are enough trainees at that facility to replace the projected losses before the staffing level becomes worse than what it currently is.

The "slightly below the national average" line you're talking about refers to rounding the Y number up to the nearest integer. If your Y number (additonal inbounds needed to meet the national average) is -3.7 that means you're projected to be 3.7 people above the national average. So if you release 4 bodies, you'll eventually be 0.3 people below the national average. In other words, slightly below the national average. It's all about projections.
All that amounts to is one large hit of people being released instead of a more gradual flow of people out the door. 4 releases in one go which drops you out of both actual and projected range, and leaves the facility at the whim of hiring
 
All that amounts to is one large hit of people being released instead of a more gradual flow of people out the door.

I see your point, but if your staffing is already good and you have 4 trainees expected to certify in the next year with no projected retirements, what's wrong with releasing 4 people a year from now? Now if less people certify than projected, yea your staffing will take a hit. But movement in future NCEPT panels will be frozen until you get more people on board. That's the protection.

As a controller with bids out, it's tough to argue against this change. The old way was much more reactive (someone has checked out, now one person can be selected) while this is a much more proactive approach (3 people will check out, 3 people can now be selected). It remains to be seen how it all pans out, but it certainly seems like this will get more people moving and in a quicker manner than before. Win-win.
 
I see your point, but if your staffing is already good and you have 4 trainees expected to certify in the next year with no projected retirements, what's wrong with releasing 4 people a year from now? Now if less people certify than projected, yea your staffing will take a hit. But movement in future NCEPT panels will be frozen until you get more people on board. That's the protection.

As a controller with bids out, it's tough to argue against this change. The old way was much more reactive (someone has checked out, now one person can be selected) while this is a much more proactive approach (3 people will check out, 3 people can now be selected). It remains to be seen how it all pans out, but it certainly seems like this will get more people moving and in a quicker manner than before. Win-win.

I have bids out as well, I'm just saying that now you just better hope you're one of the several that can be released, otherwise who knows how long it will take for them to pipeline new hires in. That's the key to the whole process.

This is a positive step, but still leaves questions and problems to be addressed
 
So a -3.5 in column y would be 3 releases? Or 4 releases?

Based on previous information I believe 4 because it is rounded up. Someone said beforehand that a 0.3 would be a 1. Not 100% though, just my understanding
 
I have bids out as well, I'm just saying that now you just better hope you're one of the several that can be released, otherwise who knows how long it will take for them to pipeline new hires in. That's the key to the whole process.

This is a positive step, but still leaves questions and problems to be addressed

You're absolutely right and continuous hiring is crucial to the whole process. If you're level 9 and below, the new change spelled out in paragraph 2 of NATCA's email should help a little bit. You'd be able to pick people up off ERR's whereas before you were blocked because your staffing was too "good". Of course that assumes you work at a facility that people would actually want to bid to.

So a -3.5 in column y would be 3 releases? Or 4 releases?

-3.5 would be 4. -0.3 would be 1. -0.1 would be 1 as well. They round up to the nearest whole number. It's explained in the message NATCA sent out regarding the change.
 
-3.5 would be 4. -0.3 would be 1. -0.1 would be 1 as well. They round up to the nearest whole number.

That's correct, but speaking math-wise they're actually taking the absolute value and then rounding up to the nearest whole number.
Rounding -3.5 up to the nearest whole number would be 0, since there's no negative whole numbers. And just rounding -3.5 up to the nearest integer would be -3.
 
That's correct, but speaking math-wise they're actually taking the absolute value and then rounding up to the nearest whole number.
Rounding -3.5 up to the nearest whole number would be 0, since there's no negative whole numbers. And just rounding -3.5 up to the nearest integer would be -3.
He's right.
 
so must you be at or above the national average then have the ability to dip below, or is this basically saying you can be well below as long as you have a bunch projected to be above?
 
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