August '16 bids earliest class dates were going to mostly ATC vets, right? They were after all the first to receive offers and clear medical. Historically not a group you would expect dismal pass rates from. Maybe we'll see an improvement when these classes cycle through, but I honestly don't know.
My money's on trouble in academy land. Tin foil hat really, but I don't see why the tail end of a hiring wave would perform WAY worse than the rest. New crop of harsh/incompetent instructors maybe? Tougher scenarios? Tech issues? Besides issues training, shifting from well qualified to qualified applicants is the only theory anyone's posted that looks good to me.