Retirement TSP Seasonal Strategies

GulfCharlie

Comrade Commissar
FAA
Messages
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BNA Nashville Tower
Good Morning Lads,

Given the recent trends combined with hysteria in the market (of which I will readily admit I am not an expert) has really triggered an interest in my TSP and retirement these past two months, thus leading me to “Seasonal Investing.” To start with a few things to make a note of so that you take what I say with a grain of salt and plan on your own accord:

-The following group to be mentioned is made entirely of individuals who do not claim to be a professional investment advisory group, just regular TSP investors that discuss and share information

-It is important to keep in mind that YOUR TSP balance CAN and WILL go down at times no matter what you invest in

-Always, to the maximum extent possible, educate yourself and never rely on others because at the end of the day it is YOUR money and retirement

TSP For Beginners (YouTube Video)

TSP Seasonal Strategies
(FacebookGroup)


You will have to apply to join the group, answer a few basic questions, and not be a complete twat. Point of order, LEAVE POLITICS AT THE DOOR.

TSP Center Introductory Post on Seasonal Strategies (Forum)

This is a segment taken from the introductory post on Seasonal Strategies:

Pros:

- Emotion is removed from the decision making process. Everything is analyzed logically by establishing quantified limitations of what a “good” month looks like, what the odds are of having a positive month vs the likelihood of a month being negative. Don't be fooled, you will still feel the emotion, but if you can keep it out of the decision making process then this is a plus.

- It’s a systematic approach that analyzes the data and makes adjustments as necessary. You don’t blindly follow the system, you understand “why” you’re in a certain Fund at a certain time and have factual data to support that understanding.

- It tends to produce consistent returns because you avoid the times of year when bad things often happen, and you make sure you’re invested when the good things usually happen.

- It’s simple to do: only about 6 moves a year for most plans, some a few more, some less. Either way, it’s a system that fits easily into the TSP’s restrictions on allowing only 2 IFT moves each month. In addition, you don’t base your moves on any fancy market indicators or some market guru’s opinion. You don’t use anything more than a simple statistical look at historical returns. KISS is the idea here.





Cons:

- If you commit to the strategy, you must follow through with it and ride the emotions that come with rough times
. I made the mistake of not doing so in Feb 2014. The market took a short dive in late Jan / early Feb while I was in the S Fund. I got scared and ran to the F Fund for the duration of Feb because the F Fund is the second-best Fund for that month. While that Feb ’14 was positive for the F fund (0.62%), the S Fund came back strong later in the month and had a return of 5.43%. This mistake on my part made a big difference in my ’14 return. I further compounded the problem when I went looking for an indicator to keep me from losing again – a “stop loss” trigger of sorts. That indicator ended up failing me because I didn’t fully understand it until I did a lot of digging and research. Before I could finish my learning, the indicator caused even more losses for me in Oct 2014, after which I finally figured out why the indicator didn’t work the way I thought it did. Fear caused me to leave the system, not once but twice, and it cost me dearly. I’ve learned my lesson: follow the data, trust the numbers. The Law of Averages works.

- No system works all of the time. Sometimes it just won’t work. We’re playing the odds with this strategy, and while the Law of Averages says we should win in the long run, it also says that we’ll have periods when we don’t. What we’re doing is stacking the deck in our favor and making an informed decision on where and when we invest. It’s the long-term end result you need to keep your focus on, not the short term dips and peaks. Followers of Bogle’s philosophy can appreciate this sentiment.

- Times when the markets move sideways for a long time are frustrating to this system because we’re looking for clear positives and negatives for each time period we use to make our decisions. At such times, we have to resist the urge to try to play Market Timer in an effort to try to do better. You avoid doing this temptation by remembering that a small positive is still a positive, and a small negative could be much worse if we aren’t good at our market timing decisions.

TSPCalc ($20 a year if you subscribe)

This is a TSP Calculator that comes with a variety of strategies (Jerin, Larry, Matt, etc…) that you may select to see the:

-CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), or even create your own strategy

-Mean

-Standard Deviation

-A whole host of charts, graphs, etc…

It should be noted that the subscription is $20 a year and includes two very important things:

-SMS messages AFTER you select a strategy telling you when to execute and Interfund Transfer

-Trading Calendar for 2020 that tells you what day of the month to execute your Interfund Transfer

Here is a screenshot of the last two months, the Purple denotes the I Fund, Blue the S Fund, Red the F Fund. The days in white are "trading days" for your two IFT's.

1582992650001.png



How To #1: The Seasonal Calculator

How To #2: The Seasonal Builder

TSPCalc YouTube Channel


Apparently I have a knack for combining a variety of documents into a “cheat sheet” so this a very basic attempt to provide information (more will be provided in links as you continue to read) to you in the spirit that .65 was born by our High Supreme Overlord MJ. Shoutout to the one FLM (you know who you are so approve my credit) I know who constantly checks .65 that I work with.



TSP Basic Terms/Funds



Interfund Transfers (IFT) *Limit 2 a month*
- An IFT allows you to redistribute all or part of your existing TSP account among the different TSP funds. An IFT does not affect the investment of future deposits into your TSP account.

IFTs made on TSP.GOV or the ThriftLine (1-877-968-3778) before 12 noon Eastern time are generally processed as of that business day. Requests made after 12 noon Eastern time are generally processed the next business day.



Contribution Allocations (CA) *Unlimited reallocation's a month* - Your contribution allocation tells us how you want new money going into your account to be invested among the TSP investment fund options. New money may be your own contributions, your agency/service contributions (if you are a FERS or BRS participant), your TSP loan payments, and any transferred or rollover funds from other retirement plans. You can make a contribution allocation at any time.

Your contribution allocation will not affect the money that is already in your account. To manage those funds, visit Interfund Transfers. For more information, view our Changing How You're Invested video.

Your contribution allocation will remain in effect until you submit another contribution allocation request.

If you have a traditional balance and a Roth balance in your TSP account, you cannot make a separate contribution allocation for each balance.

Any new money will be deposited proportionally according to your fund allocation at the time the money is deposited into your TSP account.

1582990403578.png




C Fund
-
The objective of the C Fund is to match the performance of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index (S&P 500), a broad market index made up of stocks of 500 large to medium-sized U.S. companies. There is a risk of loss if the S&P 500 declines in response to changes in overall economic conditions (market risk).

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/F...4TqG_AKaxq_u4QMU5tSRwl_mAyBTIMezgb6mfwT8mES3w


S Fund - The objective of the S Fund is to match the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market (TSM) Index, a broad market index made up of stocks of U.S. companies not included in the S&P 500 Index. There is a risk of loss if the Dow Jones U.S. Completion TSM Index declines in response to changes in overall economic conditions (market risk).

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/F...mPgtbnSJ688kzB3mFj8LdbIDZ6wMBAfkUGlopXSq4G7S0




I Fund - The objective of the I Fund is to match the performance of the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index. There is a risk of loss if the EAFE Index declines in response to changes in overall economic conditions (market risk) or in response to increases in the value of the U.S. dollar (currency risk).

https://www.tsp.gov/PDF/formspubs/F...k8v4aQ2dyaaNVZIkVc_BI8DJnjfgK-0f_0aA3g52S1BVg




G Fund- The G Fund's investment objective is to produce a rate of return that is higher than inflation while avoiding exposure to credit (default) risk and market price fluctuations. The G Fund is subject to inflation risk, or the possibility that your G Fund investment will not grow enough to offset the reduction in purchasing power that results from inflation.


For those wondering what the TSP Calculator looks like, what strategy I am following, what the returns and standard deviation are, here is a screenshot:

1582991809340.png

Please note that I cannot take credit for any of this, much brighter minds have put this together. There is quite a bit more reading to truly understand what you are embarking on should you decide to delve further and take the plunge yourself but this is a very brief and basic synopsis of Seasonal Strategies and the different TSP funds. I spent almost an entire Sunday doing research, reading, watching videos on it. I wish I had this information back when I first started with Homeland Security. You have been pointed in the right direction... the choice is, as they say, up to you. My return last year before I started doing this was 18%, for the last two months combined it has equated to 7.15%... Research and Discuss comrades.


-GC

*February Update 2/28/2020 (Video)
 
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rugbydog11

Trusted Contributor
Messages
474
I made a similar post about tspcalc a while back, but nowhere near as good as this one. I'm a long time member/subscriber and on #teamLarry this year. It is easily the greatest 20 bucks I've ever spent.
 

GulfCharlie

Comrade Commissar
FAA
Messages
615
Facility
BNA Nashville Tower
I made a similar post about tspcalc a while back, but nowhere near as good as this one. I'm a long time member/subscriber and on #teamLarry this year. It is easily the greatest 20 bucks I've ever spent.
#TeamJerin here... also a rally all next week would be nice...
 

PushingTin

Forum Sage
Messages
804
Many thousands of Feds are losing their ass because of TSPCalc. I feel bad for them that just as the market hit fresh all time highs their sudden new interest in the TSP led them to blindly trust some seasonal charts that took no headlines or current events into account. The bull market died today after 11 years. Maybe now the market can get back to being a free market that actually works as intended and finds proper valuations, but I doubt it. The next round of welfare is on the way to juice it back up. Tune in to Trump at 9 to find out who is #TooBigTofail and getting the next bailouts. Jerome Powell, Steve Mnuchin, and the Rest of the PlungeProtectionTeam have your back. No stocks can ever go down ever! Choo-choo! Next stop, 30k! We will be at negative rates in no time. Welcome to Western Europe. Welcome to the new Japan of the West. And mortgages will still Never go below the mid 3%'s! Its all make believe. brb gotta go check my mail that Obama phone never came. Also On the lookout for my stimulus check and free sick leave. Cash for clunkers 2? Yay sell my grocery getter. Meanwhile you can get rich in the TSP for a few pieces of gold as long as you follow people who tell you to be 100% exposed in C or S fund in the greatest Stock Market puke in at least 30+ years. Stick to the plan! Its just about to work. Said one controller recently "Im down about 55k, but I made 9k yesterday!" Easy come easy go. If the market doesn't hit 30k by June I demand an Andrew Yang style monthly Freedom Dividend. Stocks aren't supposed to go DOWN, the guys at TSPCalc never said that would happen.

Before the market was at all time highs and they suddenly cared about these strategies everyone was talking about and "winning" with.... they didn't care to micromanage their TSP because they knew enough to know that didn't know anything. They were at least in funds that had them at least somewhat hedged. In all fairness the great lunatic Jim Cramer was telling people to buy buy buy all last week too, straight into the face of the pandemic. cuz fuck it! Buying the dip has always worked the market isnt allowed to go down


Jerome.jpg
 
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GulfCharlie

Comrade Commissar
FAA
Messages
615
Facility
BNA Nashville Tower
Many thousands of Feds are losing their ass because of TSPCalc. I feel bad for them that just as the market hit fresh all time highs their sudden new interest in the TSP led them to blindly trust some seasonal charts that took no headlines or current events into account. The bull market died today after 11 years. Maybe now the market can get back to being a free market that actually works as intended and finds proper valuations, but I doubt it. The next round of welfare is on the way to juice it back up. Tune in to Trump at 9 to find out who is #TooBigTofail and getting the next bailouts. Jerome Powell, Steve Mnuchin, and the Rest of the PlungeProtectionTeam have your back. No stocks can ever go down ever! Choo-choo! Next stop, 30k! We will be at negative rates in no time. Welcome to Western Europe. Welcome to the new Japan of the West. And mortgages will still Never go below the mid 3%'s! Its all make believe. brb gotta go check my mail that Obama phone never came. Also On the lookout for my stimulus check and free sick leave. Cash for clunkers 2? Yay sell my grocery getter. Meanwhile you can get rich in the TSP for a few pieces of gold as long as you follow people who tell you to be 100% exposed in C or S fund in the greatest Stock Market puke in at least 30+ years. Stick to the plan! Its just about to work. Said one controller recently "Im down about 55k, but I made 9k yesterday!" Easy come easy go. If the market doesn't hit 30k by June I demand an Andrew Yang style monthly Freedom Dividend. Stocks aren't supposed to go DOWN, the guys at TSPCalc never said that would happen.

Before the market was at all time highs and they suddenly cared about these strategies everyone was talking about and "winning" with.... they didn't care to micromanage their TSP because they knew enough to know that didn't know anything. They were at least in funds that had them at least somewhat hedged. In all fairness the great lunatic Jim Cramer was telling people to buy buy buy all last week too, straight into the face of the pandemic. cuz fuck it! Buying the dip has always worked the market isnt allowed to go down


View attachment 3468

The average Federal Employee or Manager cannot make a decision to save their life. The lack of financial education, knowledge, or even a desire to learn is what blows my mind. The majority want something that can run on autopilot and tell them what to do and how to do it without wanting to understand more and as you said "blindly follow the charts." The TSPCalc is based, as you know, off historical data and the event at hand has not (to my knowledge minus 2008) been registered historically. The bull had to end at some point and it seems to be today in my honest opinion.

A massive amount of people on the Facebook Group have been asking "what: fund do I put it in, how has the virus effected everything, do not change funds or you will lock in your losses," is staggering... Truly makes me believe some people watched one video and said "This is easy! I will just do this and not think!" Controllers are notoriously lazy and to a degree seem to mimic this behaviour... Everyone wants the next best thing without putting forth any effort or work at understanding what is going on.

TLDR: I agree with you
tspcal2.jpg
TSPCAlc1.jpg S Fund.jpg
 
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PushingTin

Forum Sage
Messages
804
A massive amount of people on the Facebook Group have been asking "what: fund do I put it in, how has the virus effected everything, do not change funds or you will lock in your losses," is staggering... Truly makes me believe some people watched one video and said "This is easy! I will just do this and not think!" Controllers are notoriously lazy and to a degree seem to mimic this behaviour... Everyone wants the next best thing without putting forth any effort or work at understanding what is going on.

TLDR: I agree with you
LOL I agree w you as well.

My rant was general not at your post ofc. I have been concerned very much though in the past year hearing the rampant "TSP talk" at work, and all these new strategies and plans, when for over a decade I have almost* never heard anyone talk TSP, except that one guy here and there who plays his 2 moves like clockwork and watches CNBC on every break. Suddenly it was taking the career field by storm and it felt like a trainwreck was coming. I hope all ends well and people recoup all of their losses; but they wont.


 

GulfCharlie

Comrade Commissar
FAA
Messages
615
Facility
BNA Nashville Tower
LOL I agree w you as well.

My rant was general not at your post ofc. I have been concerned very much though in the past year hearing the rampant "TSP talk" at work, and all these new strategies and plans, when for over a decade I have almost* never heard anyone talk TSP, except that one guy here and there who plays his 2 moves like clockwork and watches CNBC on every break. Suddenly it was taking the career field by storm and it felt like a trainwreck was coming. I hope all ends well and people recoup all of their losses; but they wont.



Haha no worries, I figured as much. Everyone wants that million dollar plus TSP account but they never look at the: how, why, when of economics. Granted I am far from an expert myself, merely being an amateur, but the train wreck was over due. People with 20+ years to go will recoup the losses eventually but hopefully people continue to educate themselves and can catch this thing on the upswing.
 

32andBelow

Forum Sage
Messages
750
Maybe stop fucking cutting interest rates in good times so it actually means something. The market was inflated long before corona virus.
 
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