May (Q3) 2023

[fivebyfive]

My facility went from not being able to pick up even though we're well understaffed to now being able to potentially grab someone so I'm a fan of these changes.

Do you think these rules would encourage less gamesmanship by ERR submitters in the future?

If they continued to conduct the draft like this it would be much less important to try and pick a facility at the top of the decision lense, no?

 

[HappyController]

NCEPT Facility Lists:

Green = Releasing Facilities
Purple = Gaining and Releasing Facilities
Red = Gaining Facilities
Black = Not Eligible

This official NCEPT priority rank or just compiled speculation

 

[Move78]

My facility went from not being able to pick up even though we're well understaffed to now being able to potentially grab someone so I'm a fan of these changes.

Do you think these rules would encourage less gamesmanship by ERR submitters in the future?

If they continued to conduct the draft like this it would be much less important to try and pick a facility at the top of the decision lense, no?

It will not necessarily discourage anything but it will render it, spamming the top 10, less effective.

 

[CaptainObvious]

Wait? Did I read that right? Only 15 releasable facilities? 15? Tell me I’m wrong

 

[MN]

Wait? Did I read that right? Only 15 releasable facilities? 15? Tell me I’m wrong

You read it wrong lol. It's 87 releasable facilities.

 

[CaptainObvious]

You read it wrong lol. It's 87 releasable facilities.

Thanks. I didn’t look at the longer list. Saw some are gain/release

 

[stanleyoreo]

Is there a way to see the number of errs in for a given facility?

 

[Shhhh]

Is there a way to see the number of errs in for a given facility?

They have the demand sheet on the NATCA website but I don’t know if it’s been updated since February or later. It shows how many errs each facility has out and in as well as how many controllers from that facility have paperwork out.

 

[Acquired Taste]

They’ll get more than 1. But now the facility drafting 60th won’t get 0 for the 8th time in a row.

That's a big maybe. Looking at last panel, when there were more possible losses than there are this round, A80 had a manager's ranking list of 5 people. They got their number 1 and 4 because numbers 2, 3, and 5's facilities were out of releases by the time it got to them. I'd say there's a good chance there's only about 5 people on their ranking list this time too, so there's a good chance they will get their number 1 or 2. But by them time it gets back around to them in round 2 and being that about 287 facilities are eligible to gain and there's only 134 releases out there, I'd argue it's not just possible, but it's likely that A80 only gets 1 unless some secret closed door dynamic decisions take place.

I think a much better way to ensure the list isn't so top heavy is maybe implement some selection caps again based on how much each body represents towards projected target. Let's say each facility is capped at whatever number of selections it takes to get their projected to target to increase by 2%. Looking at DFW as an example. Target is 57. (1/57) multiplied by the training success rate 85.4% means each selection adds ~1.5% to their projected calculation so they could make 2 selections each panel. The same formula for some of top priority facilities would leave you with selection caps as follows:

NCT	5
JCF	1
PUB	1
A80	5
SNA	1
SCT	7
A11	1
M03	1
I90	3
CLT	3
D10	3
D01	3
HCF	3

Obviously these numbers need a little work but I think it's a good framework. Instead of making the cap 1 on some of these places, make the minimum cap 2 selections and the maximum 5. That way it isn't too skewed towards the neediest places. Round 1 can be exclusively level 8-12s in which they draft in an order decided by the National Terminal List. It's not perfect but the draft order could hypothetically go something like
1. MYF
2. ORF
3. TEB
4. Y90
5. A80
6. MIA
7. SCT
8. PCT
9. SCT
10. Y90.........

After everyone in Round 1, hits their caps/selections can no longer be made, Round 2 starts with the all the other facilities under the same rules until there's no more possible moves.

 

[CoffeeIV]

NCEPT makes some changes that benefit more facilities and sure enough there are people complaining. I think it's a step in the right direction instead of one large facility getting everyone like usual.

 

[Acquired Taste]

NCEPT makes some changes that benefit more facilities and sure enough there are people complaining. I think it's a step in the right direction instead of one large facility getting everyone like usual.

Idc, I already got to where I want to go. But all this move did was make an ERR to a small level, well staffed facility equitable to an ERR to a poorly staffed Core 30 tower or consolidated tracon. Now some place than can get people from the academy is going to be stealing releases from places on mandatory 6 day weeks. This will result in more people making lateral moves while simultaneously blocking their peers from progressing their career. Does STL and ACT (projected at 99%) need someone as bad as MIA, A80, and LAX (all projected at less than 72%)? The answer is obviously no, but they're all equally eligible to get 1 body in the first round and there won't be many releases to go around in round 2. I'm highly doubtful this panel even makes it to a round 3.

 

[Electricfence]

Idc, I already got to where I want to go. But all this move did was make an ERR to a small level, well staffed facility equitable to an ERR to a poorly staffed Core 30 tower or consolidated tracon. Now some place than can get people from the academy is going to be stealing releases from places on mandatory 6 day weeks. This will result in more people making lateral moves while simultaneously blocking their peers from progressing their career. Does STL and ACT (projected at 99%) need someone as bad as MIA, A80, and LAX (all projected at less than 72%)? The answer is obviously no, but they're all equally eligible to get 1 body in the first round and there won't be many releases to go around in round 2. I'm highly doubtful this panel even makes it to a round 3.

That makes sense for this round but doesn’t this over time make it was more likely to spread the wealth around increasing staffing at more places, therefore making more people eligible to be released? Yes Mia and lax will always need people but do they need that extra body right now, and then force them to sit and wait not really improving staffing as quickly as it would other places? Doesn’t this also encourage more people to apply to where they might actually want to be at rather than play the most likely to picked up at game?

 

[Acquired Taste]

That makes sense for this round but doesn’t this over time make it was more likely to spread the wealth around increasing staffing at more places, therefore making more people eligible to be released? Yes Mia and lax will always need people but do they need that extra body right now, and then force them to sit and wait not really improving staffing as quickly as it would other places? Doesn’t this also encourage more people to apply to where they might actually want to be at rather than play the most likely to picked up at game?

The only way staffing will get up over time is if they hire enough people. Until then, you're only robbing Peter's facility to pay Paul's. This is really just going to hamper peoples ability to transfer to higher level places and cripple their staffing in the long run. The issue is that if you aren't ranked in the top 5 out of 30 people, you stand basically no chance of getting selected. If your dream facility is top 10 on the priority list, I'd argue you need probably need to be ranked number 1, maybe number 2 if you're lucky, to get selected. Outside of that, it's purely luck.

I'll give you an example: at my last facility, there was a guy who only wanted to get back home to Florida. He put in for every single Florida facility except for JAX. In the time since he put those papers in, 4 other people have been released to level 12s that need people much more than PIE does. None of the 4 that were selected were ranked in the top 3 and none would have been selected under the new rules.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see people get back home. But there was definitely a better way to go about spreading the transfer wealth than limit everyone to 1 selection in round 1. They could've gone from unlimited selections to a strategic cap that makes sense like I pitched above. Something in the middle of the 2 extremes would be much more ideal than the solution they arrived at.

 

[CoffeeIV]

The past many NCEPTs allowed big facilities to pick up tons. Guess what, it did nothing but cause a bigger staffing issue. Now instead of just the large facilities working these 6 supposed day work weeks it's nearly every facility.

 

[Acquired Taste]

The past many NCEPTs allowed big facilities to pick up tons. Guess what, it did nothing but cause a bigger staffing issue. Now instead of just the large facilities working these 6 supposed day work weeks it's nearly every facility.

Staffing issues solved via NCEPT obviously take a lot of time to work their way through the system as after selections are made, it can be up to a year before the transferred employee actually steps foot in the building and another 1-2 years before they are useful for staffing. 104/186 level 4-7 terminal facilities and 100% of all centers are projected below 90%. The highest projected center is ZJX at 87.6%. The FAA direct hires into all of those facilities. The fact that everyone is on 6 day weeks isn't solely a failure of NCEPT. It's a failure of the FAA to hire enough people.

 

[BigEggplant]

The past many NCEPTs allowed big facilities to pick up tons. Guess what, it did nothing but cause a bigger staffing issue. Now instead of just the large facilities working these 6 supposed day work weeks it's nearly every facility.

Push more OT to lower levels, saves millions … lol

 

[Horno]

Push more OT to lower levels, saves millions … lol

Yeah seriously. Suddenly my 80k salary almost broke 100. I’m in the top 1% of income earners for the middle of no where America guys!

 

[ATC123]

The only way staffing will get up over time is if they hire enough people. Until then, you're only robbing Peter's facility to pay Paul's. This is really just going to hamper peoples ability to transfer to higher level places and cripple their staffing in the long run. The issue is that if you aren't ranked in the top 5 out of 30 people, you stand basically no chance of getting selected. If your dream facility is top 10 on the priority list, I'd argue you need probably need to be ranked number 1, maybe number 2 if you're lucky, to get selected. Outside of that, it's purely luck.

I'll give you an example: at my last facility, there was a guy who only wanted to get back home to Florida. He put in for every single Florida facility except for JAX. In the time since he put those papers in, 4 other people have been released to level 12s that need people much more than PIE does. None of the 4 that were selected were ranked in the top 3 and none would have been selected under the new rules.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see people get back home. But there was definitely a better way to go about spreading the transfer wealth than limit everyone to 1 selection in round 1. They could've gone from unlimited selections to a strategic cap that makes sense like I pitched above. Something in the middle of the 2 extremes would be much more ideal than the solution they arrived at.

Isn't that what we want ERRs to be? Article 42 (Section 5) doesn't limit where you can file an ERR to. Should you only be allowed to ERR to a short-staffed, high level facility? I like how this preserves ERRs for what they've been for long before NCEPT: the only way to transfer as a 2152 within the Agency.

If you are at a well staffed(can release) mid-level facility that can release 1, and you want to transfer to another mid-level facility, that is in need. That facility ranks you #1. Your coworker just wants out, he's way junior to you, and puts in 50 ERRs to the Core 30s, and a bunch of other high level facilities. All of those facilities see his experience and rank him last. Based on what we've learned today, you don't have to worry about him sniping you as your facilities only loss. Is that such a bad thing?

 

[Soul70726]

So you're telling me only 134 people across the nas are eligible to move this ncept?

Best case scenario 134 people get to move.

 

[Acquired Taste]

Isn't that what we want ERRs to be? Article 42 (Section 5) doesn't limit where you can file an ERR to. Should you only be allowed to ERR to a short-staffed, high level facility? I like how this preserves ERRs for what they've been for long before NCEPT: the only way to transfer as a 2152 within the Agency.

If you are at a well staffed(can release) mid-level facility that can release 1, and you want to transfer to another mid-level facility, that is in need. That facility ranks you #1. Your coworker just wants out, he's way junior to you, and puts in 50 ERRs to the Core 30s, and a bunch of other high level facilities. All of those facilities see his experience and rank him last. Based on what we've learned today, you don't have to worry about him sniping you as your facilities only loss. Is that such a bad thing?

I am a big believer you should have to be a CPC for a year before you can ERR out. I think that would end some of the hate for the system. I was personally affected by a brand new CPC who sniped a CAT 1 release to somewhere they had no business going. If people had to wait a year to bid out, it would give CPCs who have done their time an opportunity to get selected to lower/mid level places they want to go without having to be so desperate to get the only release in years as a result of the guy who just CPC'd and who put in for SCT that happens to be at the top of the list. If we had sensible cap limits on how many people a facility could select per panel (I'd say 5 is a good number), that brand new CPC wouldn't have been selected either. There are certainly ways to get better results out of the ncept program.

I also think all releases should be CAT 1. A year from now is a long time to wait for your new trainee to show up when staffing was bad enough for them to be selected today.