June 2018

[Homsar]

The formula has a variable they haven’t made public, which is why you get some facilities high in the list with zero possible selections.

 

[Stinger]

The formula has a variable they haven’t made public, which is why you get some facilities high in the list with zero possible selections.

I'm curious if a FOIA request is made, would they give the exact formula for priority?

 

[16gtiguy]

Yep. But it still makes no sense why their priority formula doesn't move the facilities that can't select anyone down to the bottom of the list.

Exactly, if they are unable to pick anyone up why are they even ranked, or just list em bottom of the rankings. There are several lvl 10-12 that can’t pick anyone up but yet are listed quite high. I was all excited when I saw the rankings til I noticed they were unable to pick anyone up.

 

[breakaway2000]

I'm curious if a FOIA request is made, would they give the exact formula for priority?

I've got the formula, I'll post it in a minute. You wont be able to figure out the exact placement as there's a scarcity index that's taken into account to properly weight hard to staff facilities that's based on total number of ERR requests into that facility, but you can at least understand why some of these facilities get so high and can select no one (priority to the NAS, percentage of CPCs to trainees, etc). The scarcity index is constantly changing so even if we FOIA it, it'll be outdated by the time it came out.

 

[Stinger]

The scarcity index is constantly changing so even if we FOIA it

I've seen that page that included the "scarcity index" along with the reasoning of how a priority list is made.
I didn't know it constantly changed, but it kinda makes sense.

Looked kinda like trying to calculate a facility CI on your own....unless you know some incredibly detailed information, you won't be anywhere close to actually getting it right.

 

[16gtiguy]

What is frustrating about NCEPT is facilities I want to go to have been ranked top 5 in the past and needed people, but we were too short to release now that we can release someone they can’t take anyone.

 

[breakaway2000]

I've seen that page that included the "scarcity index" along with the reasoning of how a priority list is made.
I didn't know it constantly changed, but it kinda makes sense.

Looked kinda like trying to calculate a facility CI on your own....unless you know some incredibly detailed information, you won't be anywhere close to actually getting it right.

Broken down it's not too bad, I'll run it tonight to see how close it is to the current list...

Decision Lens Criteria Calculation
1. (Core 30 Airport? (Yes=1, No=0) *.065) +
2. (Enroute Facility? (Yes=1, No=0) *.047) +
3. (ATC Level (4=.11, 5=.22, 6=.33, etc) *.079) +
4. (Projected Staffing (60%=1, 70%=.75, 80%=.5, 90%=.25, 100%=0)*.14)+
5. (Current CPC% (60%=1, 70%=.75, 80%=.5, 90%=.25, 100%=0)*.13)+
6. (Current trainee ratio aka Total Trainees/Total Bodies (35%=0, 30%=.14, 25%=.28, 20%=.43, 15%=.57, 10%=.71, 5%=.85, 0%=1) *.19) +
7. (Hard to Staff index = Potential ERR requests/Controllers needed to bring facility up to Target. Only for 8 and above terminal facilities. (0%=1, 25%=.75, 50%=.75, 75%=.25, 100%=0)*.34). =

X for each facility and then they're ranked from highest to lowest.

The only data we don't have access to is potential ERR requests. Everything else can be calculated. As far as how these facilities end up high that can select no one, you can start to see why. Core 30? check, ATC level 11, 12? Check, Low Trainee %? Check., etc.

 

[Stinger]

What is frustrating about NCEPT is facilities I want to go to have been ranked top 5 in the past and needed people, but we were too short to release now that we can release someone they can’t take anyone.

It becomes a game of "would you rather..."
Would you rather stay at your current facility and hope the stars align again to release to your desired facility, or, go somewhere not much better and hope you don't get stuck waiting for the stars to align so you can transfer again.
Or like Jerry Seinfeld talking to Kenny Bania: "this would be good but it would be the same. But if we go someplace else it would be different, but it might not be as good. It's a gamble. I get it!"

 

[Stinger]

Broken down it's not too bad, I'll run it tonight to see how close it is to the current list...

Decision Lens Criteria Calculation
1. (Core 30 Airport? (Yes=1, No=0) *.065) +
2. (Enroute Facility? (Yes=1, No=0) *.047) +
3. (ATC Level (4=.1, 5=.2, 6=.3, etc) *.079) +
4. (Projected Staffing (60%=1, 70%=.75, 80%=.5, 90%=.25, 100%=0)*.14)+
5. (Current CPC% (60%=1, 70%=.75, 80%=.5, 90%=.25, 100%=0)*.13)+
6. (Current trainee ratio aka Total Trainees/Total Bodies (35%=0, 30%=.14, 25%=.28, 20%=.43, 15%=.57, 10%=.71, 5%=.85, 0%=1) *.19) +
7. (Hard to Staff index = Potential ERR requests/Controllers needed to bring facility up to Target. Only for 8 and above terminal facilities. (0%=1, 25%=.75, 50%=.75, 75%=.25, 100%=0)*.34). =

X for each facility and then they're ranked from highest to lowest.

The only data we don't have access to is potential ERR requests. Everything else can be calculated. As far as how these facilities end up high that can select no one, you can start to see why. Core 30? check, ATC level 11, 12? Check, Low Trainee %? Check., etc.

Looks like it's possible to get closer to a reasonable list than I was thinking.

 

[jakemorrill]

My first choice facility just dropped below my second choice on the priority list, so im considering pulling that err, but I'd like to know how many applied if possible so I can see how likely my chances are.

My personal opinion, and I understand it's not a terribly popular opinion, is to put in for places you are willing to go. If you are willing to go to 20 places, put in for all of them, even if they can't take anyone. What is the worst that is going to happen? The board says no this time? Oh well. At least you have it in for the next 15 months.

My first facility was a top heavy lvl4 tower. All the old guys pushed everyone new to put in paperwork as soon as possible. They recognized that there was nothing to gain staying there. I've come to realize that this is somewhat of an anomaly in the system, but I appreciated them. Why would you ruin your chance to go to one of you desired places just because of where they sit on the list?

Good luck, either way. I hope you get your move.

 

[breakaway2000]

What is frustrating about NCEPT is facilities I want to go to have been ranked top 5 in the past and needed people, but we were too short to release now that we can release someone they can’t take anyone.

This is why we have the resources here and stress education on the process. For instance (not trying to call you out, hopefully helping you understand better for the future), the two questions you've asked in this thread (When does the ranking list get published and does being able to pick up 0 really mean 0) have been answered in each of the previous NCEPT threads. The two facilities you listed (ATL and LAS) could both select 0 on the previous facility placement list so the new update should come as no surprise. You said no facilities you have ERR's into can select. ZTL can select 5, A80 selects every panel, and L30 can select 2. If you're truly trying to get back closer to family, you had other options. Assuming you're at a 7 or below facility, the odds of getting to an ATL or LAS even if they were selecting a few bodies is incredible small if you network and non-existent if you don't. Educate yourself on the process, be prepared, expand your options, network, know how to play the game, and you'll have the potential to be selected in the future.

 

[breakaway2000]

Is there a way to find out how many have errs in to locations I've applied for? My first choice facility just dropped below my second choice on the priority list, so im considering pulling that err, but I'd like to know how many applied if possible so I can see how likely my chances are.

Given where you're at now (I imagine you'll be ranked high) and the fact you're not worried about someone jumping you, I'd call the FacRep of your number 1 choice after the manager's ranking list closes and ask where they ranked you. You can explain you have two ERR's out and your 2nd choice jumped them, but you'd pull it if you knew they'd be selecting you. If you know you'll be selected or like your odds of it falling to you (picking up 2, ranked 3) then you can pull your ERR from the other facility.

 

[LEAD004]

What is frustrating about NCEPT is facilities I want to go to have been ranked top 5 in the past and needed people, but we were too short to release now that we can release someone they can’t take anyone.

I totally hear u. The most frustrating thing for me is when they keep sending academy grads, previous experience and nest people to the places I have in for. No one will ever ERR to the facility I'm currently at so when the panel comes up where we can release my facilities aren't able to select because they just got people. I really wish there was a way for them to take ERRs into consideration before sending newbies to desirable places. I literally could be stuck here forever if I don't chase the list. I'm willing to be patient for a little longer but eventually I'll have to start chasing like everyone else I guess. Ugh.

 

[ajmezz]

It would be interesting to see some stats on how many people have actually made it to the second round of selections and picked up.

 

[GulfCharlie]

I totally hear u. The most frustrating thing for me is when they keep sending academy grads, previous experience and nest people to the places I have in for. No one will ever ERR to the facility I'm currently at so when the panel comes up where we can release my facilities aren't able to select because they just got people. I really wish there was a way for them to take ERRs into consideration before sending newbies to desirable places. I literally could be stuck here forever if I don't chase the list. I'm willing to be patient for a little longer but eventually I'll have to start chasing like everyone else I guess. Ugh.

Sounds like something for a MOU. I like this idea.

 

[Stinger]

It would be interesting to see some stats on how many people have actually made it to the second round of selections and picked up.

Wouldn't that just be the people that are selected for facilities that take them beyond the "possible gains to national average"?
Facility XXX, a level 8, can select 4 to get to the national average, but can select 7 to get to the 100% target number. So selections 5-7 would be the people from round 2.

 

[breakaway2000]

It would be interesting to see some stats on how many people have actually made it to the second round of selections and picked up.

2nd round selections are becoming far more prevalent as staffing improves and more facilities become eligible. In terms of 2nd round selections...

April 2018 - 35
February 2018 - 33
December 2017 - 32
September 2017 - 26
June 2017 - 17 (When the flood gates opened and Cat 1/2 exempt status was taken away)

Prior to Cat 1/2 exempt status being taken away I believe a second round selection only happened once.

 

[ajmezz]

Wouldn't that just be the people that are selected for facilities that take them beyond the "possible gains to national average"?
Facility XXX, a level 8, can select 4 to get to the national average, but can select 7 to get to the 100% target number. So selections 5-7 would be the people from round 2.

Breakaway answered.

 

[jakemorrill]

2nd round selections are becoming far more prevalent as staffing improves and more facilities become eligible. In terms of 2nd round selections...

April 2018 - 35
February 2018 - 33
December 2017 - 32
September 2017 - 26
June 2017 - 17 (When the flood gates opened and Cat 1/2 exempt status was taken away)

Prior to Cat 1/2 exempt status being taken away I believe a second round selection only happened once.

Is there anyway of knowing where in the process you are selected? Was I selected first round, or in the second round?

 

[breakaway2000]

Is there anyway of knowing where in the process you are selected? Was I selected first round, or in the second round?

From September 2017 onward, the list NATCA distributes shows the order of selection. You can view the far left column (Facility Priority) to see when the second round begins.