May (Q2) 2021

Key word: “National”
Lol you're so wrong dude. The average national training success rate doesn't have shit to do with projections. Each trainee has their own projected value in the NAS based on what facility their at so it's not 1 for 1 that if a trainee somewhere certifies, they automatically count as 100% instead of 82.1%. If the only people that checked out between last month's ppt and this months were trainees at facilities with 100% training success, and no other numbers changed, the national projections wouldn't move at all.
 
Lol you're so wrong dude. The average national training success rate doesn't have shit to do with projections. Each trainee has their own projected value in the NAS based on what facility their at so it's not 1 for 1 that if a trainee somewhere certifies, they automatically count as 100% instead of 82.1%. If the only people that checked out between last month's ppt and this months were trainees at facilities with 100% training success, and no other numbers changed, the national projections wouldn't move at all.
Yes you are correct the individual facility success rates determine a certs value in the national data.
 
Lol you're so wrong dude. The average national training success rate doesn't have shit to do with projections. Each trainee has their own projected value in the NAS based on what facility their at so it's not 1 for 1 that if a trainee somewhere certifies, they automatically count as 100% instead of 82.1%. If the only people that checked out between last month's ppt and this months were trainees at facilities with 100% training success, and no other numbers changed, the national projections wouldn't move at all.
I don't think you know how balls deep in NCEPT Move78 actually is
 
I don't think you know how balls deep in NCEPT Move78 actually is
He was right, I misunderstood what he meant. I didn’t really think about the specifics of that part because the point of the original message was an individual cert or even a group of certs in the last few days of the NCEPT panel data cutoff effects the national projected an insignificant amount because its a drop in the ocean. New training data on 4/28 however does have the potential, maybe, to make a visible wave, maybe, depending on how it changes (we’ll see). Especially if you get a significant change in success rate or training time in years at a facility with a large trainee number like a center, for example, maybe somewhere in Georgia.

This type of thing happened before a few years ago when they updated the projected retirements and other losses and all the center projecteds moved a ton and it was enough to move the national projected significantly.
They have updated training data before too obviously but I think the total movement has been fairly small.
 
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A11 A80 A90 ACY ANC ATL BOI BOS C90 CMH D01 D10 DAB DFW EWR F11 I90 IAH ICT JFK L30 LAS M98 MEM MSY NCT ORD ORF PHL PUB SCT SDF STL TEB ZPA ZAB ZBW ZDV ZFW ZID ZKC ZMA ZME ZOB ZSE
From today's (April 28th) run, the following facilities are eligible to pick up at least one person:

A80 A90 ANC ATL BOI BOS C90 CMH CVG D01 D10 DAB DEN EWR FLL I90 IAH ICT JFK L30 LAS M98 MEM MSY NCT OAK ORD ORF PHL PUB SAT SAV SCT SDF SFO SNA STL TEB ZAB ZDC ZFW ZID ZLA ZMA ZME ZOB ZSE ZTL

Differences from the April PPT run at the end of March:

A11, ACY, DFW, F11, TPA, ZBW, ZDV, ZKC no longer eligible to gain.
CVG, DEN, FLL, OAK, SAT, SAV, SFO, SNA, ZDC, ZLA, ZTL newly eligible to gain.

But the posted NCEPT timeline says there's a PPT run on May 5th, and then doesn't mention it again despite it being called the "weekly run." And there's going to be an official PPT published on May 26th, the day before the NCEPT panel meets. So who the heck knows if this is even relevant.
 
From today's (April 28th) run, the following facilities are eligible to pick up at least one person:

A80 A90 ANC ATL BOI BOS C90 CMH CVG D01 D10 DAB DEN EWR FLL I90 IAH ICT JFK L30 LAS M98 MEM MSY NCT OAK ORD ORF PHL PUB SAT SAV SCT SDF SFO SNA STL TEB ZAB ZDC ZFW ZID ZLA ZMA ZME ZOB ZSE ZTL

Differences from the April PPT run at the end of March:

A11, ACY, DFW, F11, TPA, ZBW, ZDV, ZKC no longer eligible to gain.
CVG, DEN, FLL, OAK, SAT, SAV, SFO, SNA, ZDC, ZLA, ZTL newly eligible to gain.

But the posted NCEPT timeline says there's a PPT run on May 5th, and then doesn't mention it again despite it being called the "weekly run." And there's going to be an official PPT published on May 26th, the day before the NCEPT panel meets. So who the heck knows if this is even relevant.
5/5 run will be used
 
5/5 run will be used
And will that run be published for us to see or will they Dynamically Decide™ to keep that information to themselves? Not knocking you, I appreciate your letting us know things. It just seems like everything's hidden behind everything else.
 
And will that run be published for us to see or will they Dynamically Decide™ to keep that information to themselves? Not knocking you, I appreciate your letting us know things. It just seems like everything's hidden behind everything else.
The ppt run for the panel has never not been public.
 
Does anyone have an idea the priority order of picking facilities for Round 1? Is it as simple as the lowest projected pick up?
No, that's round 2. For Round 1 it'll go by "NCEPT priority" ranking, which will probably look a lot different than it has in the past because:

we modified the Decision Lens tool which assists in prioritizing facility rankings for the NCEPT process. The Parties at the national level put extra weight onto staffing health of each facility, and lowered weight of criticality to the NAS. The goal of this was to bring the facilities with smaller staffing targets up to the top of the ranking list, regardless of their affiliation (Core 30, Enroute, mid-level, etc). Facilities that normally don't rank within the first 30 facilities because of size or type, yet still have a small staffing target, should now move higher on the facility priority list.
 
Has anyone received clarification on the first "rule" of round one?

"Gaining facility must be below 85% AOB and projected national average."

Does this this mean that the gaining facility must be below 85% AOB and 85% projected national average?

or

Does this mean 85% AOB and current projected national average (90.3%)?

Thanks!
 
Has anyone received clarification on the first "rule" of round one?

"Gaining facility must be below 85% AOB and projected national average."

Does this this mean that the gaining facility must be below 85% AOB and 85% projected national average?

or

Does this mean 85% AOB and current projected national average (90.3%)?

Thanks!
Second example. Currently below 85% and below projected.
 
Has anyone received clarification on the first "rule" of round one?

"Gaining facility must be below 85% AOB and projected national average."

Does this this mean that the gaining facility must be below 85% AOB and 85% projected national average?

or

Does this mean 85% AOB and current projected national average (90.3%)?

Thanks!
Projected national average is 90.3%. There’s no such thing as 85% projected national average.
 
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