November (Q1) 2023

[Bandit117]

What is with this ERR demand link on the NATCA NCEPT page? It won't open whenever I click on it. Anyone else able to open it?

I got it to work. Even if its cooked numbers, it shows that basically 2/3rds of the facilites in the NAS have negligible ERRs in to them.

I define negligible as less than 10 Errs so facilities with 9 or less. Thats being generous because the national average is 12 Errs per facility. By these definitions 196 are negligible places that have 0-9 errs in. 113 of those 196 of those have 2 or less.

These 196 facilities no one really wants to go to have a combined 524 inbound ERR requests or about 14% of the total ERRs. This means that out of 3866 total national ERRs on file, 86% of them are out to the about 1/3 (100 or so) of the total facilities in the NAS, whereas the bulk of the facilities in the NAS have little to no interest in them. People don't want to go to 2/3rds of the NAS.

This goes back to what Ive been saying since years ago. Not all facilities are equally desirable and there's a large subset that are totally undesirable. 46 facilities have 0, 43 have 1 and 24 have only 2 inbound ERRs. That alone means over 1/3rd of the NAS is basically totally undesirable for anyone to transfer to, so the only hope at thos places is academy and prior exp hiring.

The top 50 facilities have 2251 inbound ERRs which is 58% of all ERRs out there. Narrowing it down, the top 10 facilities have 764 ERRs which is 20% if you round up a a few tenths a perfect. That's utterly insane that 1/5 of all transfer requests are to 10 places, which comprise 3% of the 313 FAA facilities.

Ncept is a joke. Its a lottery to placate people. If NATCA was a real union they would be fighting for pay raises for the people stuck at those places no one wants to go to. Raise lower level pay to be more competitive with higher level pay and a lot of the issues go away.

The imbalances we see here are the textbook definition of a structural problem and the longer it’s allowed to fester the worse it will get.

Im trying to think of a good way I can present it, but if you have 0 errs inbound there’s a huge correlation there of having 0 outbounds eligible as well.

 

[CaptainObvious]

Hey look at that national average slip further and further down

 

[TermLimits]

I got it to work. Even if its cooked numbers, it shows that basically 2/3rds of the facilites in the NAS have negligible ERRs in to them.

I define negligible as less than 10 Errs so facilities with 9 or less. Thats being generous because the national average is 12 Errs per facility. By these definitions 196 are negligible places that have 0-9 errs in. 113 of those 196 of those have 2 or less.

These 196 facilities no one really wants to go to have a combined 524 inbound ERR requests or about 14% of the total ERRs. This means that out of 3866 total national ERRs on file, 86% of them are out to the about 1/3 (100 or so) of the total facilities in the NAS, whereas the bulk of the facilities in the NAS have little to no interest in them. People don't want to go to 2/3rds of the NAS.

This goes back to what Ive been saying since years ago. Not all facilities are equally desirable and there's a large subset that are totally undesirable. 46 facilities have 0, 43 have 1 and 24 have only 2 inbound ERRs. That alone means over 1/3rd of the NAS is basically totally undesirable for anyone to transfer to, so the only hope at thos places is academy and prior exp hiring.

The top 50 facilities have 2251 inbound ERRs which is 58% of all ERRs out there. Narrowing it down, the top 10 facilities have 764 ERRs which is 20% if you round up a a few tenths a perfect. That's utterly insane that 1/5 of all transfer requests are to 10 places, which comprise 3% of the 313 FAA facilities.

Ncept is a joke. Its a lottery to placate people. If NATCA was a real union they would be fighting for pay raises for the people stuck at those places no one wants to go to. Raise lower level pay to be more competitive with higher level pay and a lot of the issues go away.

Still think its wild how 10-12s can only take up to the national average...

4-7 has academy/prior exp/NEST to help staff them.
8-9 appear on prior exp lists every now and then but can also take up to 100% projected Round 2.

NCEPT itself can be improved upon drastically.

Simple suggestions for all the anonymous FAA/Union decision makers reading:

• Let 8-12s take up to 100% projected round 2 with cat 2 releases only (give low levels time to replace some of the personnel before shipping them out)
• Dynamic (we like this word) placement tool when making selections
  1. Update it as you go... I know of a few places that would release one individual, have staffing updated to gain, then immediately pick up from another facility.
  2. This helps keep the low level facilities from having a massive purge of CPCs without replacements lined up.

 

[Termine]

The top 50 facilities have 2251 inbound ERRs which is 58% of all ERRs out there.

Top 20% of facilities (top 62) account for 66% of inbound ERRs. Not super close to being the 80-20 rule but sort of adjacent to it.

 

[Bandit117]

Top 20% of facilities (top 62) account for 66% of inbound ERRs. Not super close to being the 80-20 rule but sort of adjacent to it.

It’s prolly closer to 80-20 if you could gauge desire to leave by means other than ERRs. Sound stupid at its face but I bet (by bet I mean know from experience) a lot of people at black holes don’t even bother with ERRs because there is no hope of being considered anytime soon.

 

[Beer]

Still think its wild how 10-12s can only take up to the national average...

4-7 has academy/prior exp/NEST to help staff them.
8-9 appear on prior exp lists every now and then but can also take up to 100% projected Round 2.

NCEPT itself can be improved upon drastically.

Simple suggestions for all the anonymous FAA/Union decision makers reading:

• Let 8-12s take up to 100% projected round 2 with cat 2 releases only (give low levels time to replace some of the personnel before shipping them out)
• Dynamic (we like this word) placement tool when making selections
  1. Update it as you go... I know of a few places that would release one individual, have staffing updated to gain, then immediately pick up from another facility.
  2. This helps keep the low level facilities from having a massive purge of CPCs without replacements lined up.

This right here is a good post

 

[rhombus]

Still think its wild how 10-12s can only take up to the national average...

4-7 has academy/prior exp/NEST to help staff them.
8-9 appear on prior exp lists every now and then but can also take up to 100% projected Round 2.

NCEPT itself can be improved upon drastically.

Simple suggestions for all the anonymous FAA/Union decision makers reading:

• Let 8-12s take up to 100% projected round 2 with cat 2 releases only (give low levels time to replace some of the personnel before shipping them out)
• Dynamic (we like this word) placement tool when making selections
  1. Update it as you go... I know of a few places that would release one individual, have staffing updated to gain, then immediately pick up from another facility.
  2. This helps keep the low level facilities from having a massive purge of CPCs without replacements lined up.

These are some really good ideas.

During the May panel we were just above 85% current and weren't able to select at all. Nowhere near fully staffed. We had someone from a local level 5 put paperwork in but we couldn't pick them up. They were 100% staffed with someone in training and nobody outbound. No one from that facility got picked up during the panel. So you have someone's career growth put on hold even though their facility is >100% projected because the facility they want to go to is just barely over some arbitrary, bullshit 85% staffing number. Criminal.

I think it's important to keep focus on Level 8 and 9's in round 2 because they are getting boned more than anyone. But I see absolutely nothing wrong with staffing 10-12's up to 100% in a Round 3 if there are still eligible ERRs left. Blocking someone in a well staffed facility from advancing their career because their dream facility is 88% staffed is just cruel and frankly pretty stupid. Why would the FAA and/or NATCA not want Core 30 airports to be well staffed?

 

[TermLimits]

These are some really good ideas.

During the May panel we were just above 85% current and weren't able to select at all. Nowhere near fully staffed. We had someone from a local level 5 put paperwork in but we couldn't pick them up. They were 100% staffed with someone in training and nobody outbound. No one from that facility got picked up during the panel. So you have someone's career growth put on hold even though their facility is >100% projected because the facility they want to go to is just barely over some arbitrary, bullshit 85% staffing number. Criminal.

I think it's important to keep focus on Level 8 and 9's in round 2 because they are getting boned more than anyone. But I see absolutely nothing wrong with staffing 10-12's up to 100% in a Round 3 if there are still eligible ERRs left. Blocking someone in a well staffed facility from advancing their career because their dream facility is 88% staffed is just cruel and frankly pretty stupid. Why would the FAA and/or NATCA not want Core 30 airports to be well staffed?

Core 30 being 86.7% staffed probably saves millions in salaries each year lol

 

[Acquired Taste]

Core 30 being 86.7% staffed probably saves millions in salaries each year lol

The level 10-12s as a whole are staffed at 78.1% right now. Of course there's some outliers in there like PHL, ZNY and N90 but when you remove those, you're still at 79.1%. Not ideal

 

[TermLimits]

The level 10-12s as a whole are staffed at 78.1% right now. Of course there's some outliers in there like PHL, ZNY and N90 but when you remove those, you're still at 79.1%. Not ideal

Exactly why I seriously question both NATCA and the FAA’s decision to only allow 8-9 to take up to 100% in round 2.

Unless they start picking OTS candidates and shipping them straight to the Core 30, Tracons, and large up downs, they’ll always be staffed around this amount.

Either that or we just lower the standards to zero and certify all of the trainees at the 10-12s.

 

[GulfBravoPapa]

Core 30 level 10 tracon - we've got 6 prior experience developmentals right now, first facility.

 

[TermLimits]

Core 30 level 10 tracon - we've got 6 prior experience developmentals right now, first facility.

Room for one more? Been trying to get there for a while now

 

[Acquired Taste]

Room for one more? Been trying to get there for a while now

Sorry man, I know you've done your time and got certified and your facility can probably release but we've just decided to go in another direction and take some people who are new to the agency instead. Maybe the policy will change in the future but for now just sit tight and hang out where you're at for a few more years and we'll let you know.

 

[TermLimits]

Sorry man, I know you've done your time and got certified and your facility can probably release but we've just decided to go in another direction and take some people who are new to the agency instead. Maybe the policy will change in the future but for now just sit tight and hang out where you're at for a few more years and we'll let you know.

100% this happened to me last panel lol. 6th times the charm maybe

 

[Balls2/H]

Room for one more? Been trying to get there for a while now

Best we can do is offer you another core 30 tracon not close to your desired location, but can select you, and you’ll never get to leave

 

[TermLimits]

Best we can do is offer you another core 30 tracon not close to your desired location, but can select you, and you’ll never get to leave

Might be worth the gamble. I’m sure plenty of people would take an offer like that

 

[abc1234]

It’s prolly closer to 80-20 if you could gauge desire to leave by means other than ERRs. Sound stupid at its face but I bet (by bet I mean know from experience) a lot of people at black holes don’t even bother with ERRs because there is no hope of being considered anytime soon.

Right, I guarantee there would be at least 100 outbounds from ZNY and ZOA each, but I think they only had like 1 because people know there is no chance of leaving in the next 10 years

 

[FightingIrish2012]

Right, I guarantee there would be at least 100 outbounds from ZNY and ZOA each, but I think they only had like 1 because people know there is no chance of leaving in the next 10 years

What’s going to be different in ten years lol? Places like that are always the same. N90 has been “on the verge of collapse” since well before Dean Iccapoli was Fac Rep. They will be perennially understaffed but will continue to release though hardships and insider deals. ZNY and ZOA actually lead the NAS in hardship releases.

 

[Bandit117]

What’s going to be different in ten years lol? Places like that are always the same. N90 has been “on the verge of collapse” since well before Dean Iccapoli was Fac Rep. They will be perennially understaffed but will continue to release though hardships and insider deals. ZNY and ZOA actually lead the NAS in hardship releases.

Rich Santa left N90. Would be interested to know how.

 

[TermLimits]

Rich Santa left N90. Would be interested to know how.

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