November (Q1) 2023

[Phanatical]

The six level 12 towers collectively have 330 ERRs in for them and can only pick up 16 to the projected national average. And all 16 of those selectable are for MIA. The rest are 0. Developmentals should be at the bottom of the ranking lists.

 

[SharDiNae]

The six level 12 towers collectively have 330 ERRs in for them and can only pick up 16 to the projected national average. And all 16 of those selectable are for MIA. The rest are 0. Developmentals should be at the bottom of the ranking lists.

Holy shit. Thats a crazy stat. Where do you see how many ERR's are submitted what list is that? Id like to look.

 

[julietoscar]

Holy shit. Thats a crazy stat. Where do you see how many ERR's are submitted what list is that? Id like to look.

the Natca ERR demand spreadsheet. On NATCA - NCEPT page, or someone posted it earlier in this thread.

 

[rhombus]

The six level 12 towers collectively have 330 ERRs in for them and can only pick up 16 to the projected national average. And all 16 of those selectable are for MIA. The rest are 0. Developmentals should be at the bottom of the ranking lists.

Developmentals are at the bottom of the ranking list, if they are even on the list at all

 

[Smitty]

What are the chances my friend gets picked up from a level 7 if he’s a developmental and he puts in for every lvl 12

Slim to none, but he will be able to put in for every Level 4 when you wash him ?‍♂️

 

[jorgeluis161]

Any update on rules for this upcoming NCEPT? Or why the delay?

 

[rhombus]

Any update on rules for this upcoming NCEPT? Or why the delay?

They might just be reverting to the SOP

 

[ChuckNovember]

They might just be reverting to the SOP

nooo way that would be hundreds of transfers

 

[Termine]

Gotta wait until the PPT is run so they know how to adjust the rules to prevent any transfers.

Prove me wrong.

 

[TermLimits]

Gotta wait until the PPT is run so they know how to adjust the rules to prevent any transfers.

Prove me wrong.

Like I said earlier. Only dynamic decisions will be made.

And/or they’re trying to come up with a way to gently break the news we are all being forcefully assigned to N90, ZNY, and ZOA

 

[Phanatical]

nooo way that would be hundreds of transfers

With the NPA so low, it really shouldn’t be.

 

[ChuckNovember]

With the NPA so low, it really shouldn’t be.

You right

 

[HappyController]

Numbers are out. Dynamic decisions were already made.

 

[Acquired Taste]

Numbers are out. Dynamic decisions were already made.

Also more evidence of the hiring slow down still.... according to the November NCEPT PPT, possible losses this panel are down to 197, down from 251 on the August panel, 299 in May, and 300 in Feb. I think a lot of it is actually due to not having good enough projected at these low level places to let more people leave. Crazy theory here but could the NATCA NCEPT folks actually be fighting for modifications that allow a little more movement this round than would otherwise be possible with the old rules?


Edit: I take it back. There's only 4 facilities out of the 158 that have an AOB above 85% but are projected to low to release: LAX, GFK, CAK, MLI.

Edit Edit: I am dumb and was looking at the wrong FEB panel PPT instead of the NOV panel PPT because once again, I am dumb. The original theory still stands.

 

[kombucha23]

Magically I can’t get on KSN. Rigged.

 

[TermLimits]

Also more evidence of the hiring slow down still.... according to the November NCEPT PPT, possible losses this panel are down to 197, down from 251 on the August panel, 299 in May, and 300 in Feb. I think a lot of it is actually due to not having good enough projected at these low level places to let more people leave. Crazy theory here but could the NATCA NCEPT folks actually be fighting for modifications that allow a little more movement this round than would otherwise be possible with the old rules?


Edit: I take it back. There's only 4 facilities out of the 158 that have an AOB above 85% but are projected to low to release: LAX, GFK, CAK, MLI.

CAK is projected to lose 4 (projected 107%)
GFK can lose 1
LAX can lose 1

 

[Acquired Taste]

CAK is projected to lose 4 (projected 107%)
GFK can lose 1
LAX can lose 1

Correction, I am dumb and was looking at the FEB PPT instead of the November PPT. My original theory holds true. There are actually 137 facilities with AOB above 85% this panel but 19 of them do not have the projected to release. Those 19 are:
LVK
POU
LGA
CLE
FAR
SMF
JNU
LAN
OGG
ADS
PSP
SCK
FSM
TUL
DVT
MKG
DPA
SJC
JFK

14/19 of those are level 4-7s that should be well stocked with AGs but the FAA failed those places by not sending them bodies to keep that revolving door spinning.

 

[HappyController]

Correction, I am dumb and was looking at the FEB PPT instead of the November PPT. My original theory holds true. There are actually 137 facilities with AOB above 85% this panel but 19 of them do not have the projected to release. Those 19 are:
LVK
POU
LGA
CLE
FAR
SMF
JNU
LAN
OGG
ADS
PSP
SCK
FSM
TUL
DVT
MKG
DPA
SJC
JFK

14/19 of those are level 4-7s that should be well stocked with AGs but the FAA failed those places by not sending them bodies to keep that revolving door spinning.

What about this 8-9 that get stuck with no one wanting the intermediate stepping stone lol

 

[Acquired Taste]

What about this 8-9 that get stuck with no one wanting the intermediate stepping stone lol

What are you talking about my guy? Plenty of 8s and 9s have a lot of ERRs on file as many are desirable places where people want to actually spend their careers at. Yours in particular is highly sought after with way more ERRs from releasable facilities than they can actually pick up. For the undesirable 8s, they should send the N90 OTS washouts there. They started doing it recently and instead of sending them to highly sought after Florida facilities, they sent 2 to Y90. Hopefully they continue to send them to Y90, ORF, U90 and JCF instead of places like RSW where plenty of people actually want to go. But once again, there's plenty of people who bid your facility. Them actually getting selected through ncept on the other hand.... that might be a different story.

 

[DADDYSbabyBIRD]

Correction, I am dumb and was looking at the FEB PPT instead of the November PPT. My original theory holds true. There are actually 137 facilities with AOB above 85% this panel but 19 of them do not have the projected to release. Those 19 are:
LVK
POU
LGA
CLE
FAR
SMF
JNU
LAN
OGG
ADS
PSP
SCK
FSM
TUL
DVT
MKG
DPA
SJC
JFK

14/19 of those are level 4-7s that should be well stocked with AGs but the FAA failed those places by not sending them bodies to keep that revolving door spinning.

Some of those places are quite unlucky... 84.9% protected staffing is quite the slap in the face.